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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd